some reasons they are down again today. david: the bells are ringing, they are still cheering on wall street. iyou think how the market has performed since the beginning of this year. only six times in the past 40 years, by the way the market has performed as well as it has over the past six months. a down day once in a while is not necessarily a bad thing. liz: time for the top headlines in the past hour. new fed's talk on monetary policy, a voting member of the fed policy committee says the fed should definitely have more data before it decides to taper its effort. david: oversees it has been a bloody day in egypt. at least 149 people have been killed in clashes between security forces and the supporters of mohammed morsi.

liz: a down day for investors. cutting the guidance for the whole year. david: farm equipment giant beer which raised the forecast. beating estimates. liz: federal prosecutors announce charges over the 6 billion plus london wales trading scandals. accused of "fudging the numbers" and in some cases making them up. david: and the tech blog all things d says amazon is hiring staff for a secret warehouse in new jersey. the amazon fresh grocery delivery service that could be coming to the new york area very soon. a very busy day. "after the bell" starts right now.

liz: can the delivery truck stop at my house in new jersey first? i love it. we are only delivering to manhattan. let's go to today's move. investment senior equity analyst whose last stock pick is up 11%, and in the pits of the cme. what was it like in the pits because we did not see much generation in anything from the yield on treasury bonds to equities. >> the market is a big nothing. we are moving up and down, and between a range of 1680-1700. matter what anybody says or does, this market is right now lock solid. 1700 on the upside, it gets no excitement. the bond market trying to taper,

interest rates are going higher. david: holding apple stock is what has happened to that stock it came down below .500 a couple of dollars below .500, trading at a high, it has been undervalued for a long time, right? >> that is absolutely right. if you look at the past few months it has underperformed the broad market. getting a nice pickup on this news. if you look back at the peak before, this pullback was not a surprise, but as you mentioned perhaps strengthen a little bit of a game-changer. liz: said the market was nothing, we have 114-point loss on the dow, the first since

june, as we look at what is happening right now, is that enough to alarm you or are you fine with unexpected pullback? >> it does not alarm me. it has been low-volume turning sideways a bit of a trading range, expect higher prices as they mentioned earlier, this is the sixth strongest year, so when you go back to with the exception of 1987, they had average gain around 5% for the rest of the year. it hammers home sometimes these trends bigger picture results in the upside. david: a word of caution, and i will go to you because i know how joe feels about this. of those six times we performed so well in the past 40 years, one of those years was 1987. we were doing great until october, and then came the

crash. is there any concern among traders at the cme that we might be in for another 1987? >> there is a little bit of a concern. one level at a time, but there are some similarities, cheaper money which we had, i traded in the pits as well. lots of low volume, low volatility as we try to grind higher. we are only a percent and a half from the all-time high in the market, or 2% so there's a lot of striking similarities that could trigger some major selling. it is going to be hard to imagine anything but a normal correction. in the back of your mind you have to wonder could it happen? yes, it could happen. certainly we have to break below before you worry about some major crash. i would have some fear, i am slightly to the bearish side.

liz: we are at 1685 right now. let me get to ashley webster. cisco numbers. >> the earnings per share. a 1 cent beat of the 51-cent estimate on revenue. $12.4 billion. the estimate was for 12.41. just 1 penny beat on the upside. after-hours trading's here, relatively flat, we will wait and see, dig into these details, the switching revenue. we continue to see what comes out in this report. david: is a lot of competition, is we're going to look at some of the guys. it may be less than the actual numbers, more in the guidance

that we get about what is going to be happening. it is down after-hours slightly, but it is coming back a little bit. what do you think about cisco, todd? >> the usually unde underpromis, overdeliver. this has been the theme since earning season. cisco probably near the upper end of the range and i would not be a buyer here. a much greater chance to sell off a little bit. 25, 24, i would be looking to possibly buy it. i think the anticipated better than they got, don't think they're going to go much further. liz: i just want to continue to stick with cisco. again, it is now moving slightly lower for the bid. you see the ask about $25.90 at the moment.

i don't know, still looking for more headlines. do you see anything? david: i don't. they have talked down the stock before the earnings come in and they do better. again, revenue, which is a real bugaboo in the earnings we have seen the past couple of quarte quarters, is that a problem? for the earnings in general? >> as you mentioned, the bottom-line earnings have been pretty good, revenue numbers not too well, but one of the interesting things i noticed, a ton of optimism, 30 analysts covering the stock. you know how may recommend it is selling the earnings? zero. even looking at the calls, nine times as many calls into this earning the past 10 days so it was tone when you look at investors, think it would have taken quite an earnings report

to impress these investors. liz: before we let you go, i would like to get your picks. best buy, you really like it. domino's pizza, bank of america and amex. just yesterday we had who said p doing a lot of things with social media to get more customers. >> you are absolutely right. it'll be interesting to see those developments. talk about short-sellers, they have targeted that name, the price action has been incredibly strong. less than half the analysts covering that actually recommend buying that stock yet perhaps it could cause some upgrades that could bring money off the sidelines, so i think best buy has potential upside here. david: terrific stuff. we will see you in a couple of minutes when the s&p futures)

liz: w we've got a lot of fed talk. tapering asset purchases but is the fed looking at the correct economic indicators? david: also, europe is back. finally growing after the longest contraction since world war ii. is it time for you, the investor, to jump in? your playbook coming up. liz: betting on apple, is it finally time to buy the stock? log on to facebook.com/after the bell. [ indistinct shouting ]

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liz: shares trading lower now after releasing earnings almonds ago. let's go back to lauren simonetti. lauren: we have the earnings, we saw a beat by a penny, but revenue 12.4, ms. ever so slightly. it is surprising the shares are having such negative reactions. this is a record quarter in many aspects.

record revenue, record cash flow in the quarter, for instance, so those are the positives. there will be a conference call, that is when we will get more information on what exactly investors are so disappointed with in this quarter. david: misti and revenues is a problem, but who knows, that problem could turn it around. the s&p futures are closing. perfect time to check in with todd at the pits of the cme. all the action happens the last 30 seconds of trading, todd. >> it does comedy looks like we're going to close near our lows. some heavy selling. for tomorrow you have to watch the jobless claims, cpi, but the real key number to watch tomorrow is $16.80 on the s an . watch the boy man volatility to pick up. david: good to see you.

liz: the euro zone at least the second quaater gdp numbers revealing the region has finally emerged from six straight quarters of recession. is now the time for investors to pilot to europe? are you worried? i believe i was hearing you speak, watch out, things are going to recover, it is a full-blown recovery you are comfortable with telling them to come in? >> it is a full-blown recovery, but the beginning of something good coming out of europe. very much what we expected for a long time. marvelous work. the beginnings of the rewards for that but we wouldn't back of the truck but we start wearing

into the european story as well as developed market around the world. liz: people talk about how germany and france are dragging the rest of the countries along. is that a fair assessment? >> i think they certainly are. we are reaching a big hand back helping them up out of the muck. liz: we are not late on this. if some viewers really wanted to get in, it is okay now, this is at least a decent time to dip a toe into certain equities. >> we would thing for investors who can handle a little bit of volatility, type of investors who have enjoyed investing in the s&p 500 over the last four and a half years or so, understand the way the market works, discount mechanism, we think they could have a good opportunity here when we look at the european market. the euro stock is already

up 23%. year to date up 8%. an attractive dividend. liz: you want to get in when it is too scary. but now people have decided they wanted it. let's talk about the etfs. this is an emerging markets, but only invests in european monetary union stocks, correct? >> that is right. a diversified basket of european monetary union's stocks, it is readily available, investors can see a fact sheet very readily. liz: give us some names that are in there. >> i cannot give you names because i'm in the process of

getting ready to launch a new unit truck developed inch national market, or global market including the u.s., but i can give you an idea in of sectors bi. the sectors we had to spit the most will be super bowl because we look at the exporters. information technology. consumer discretionary. also material. those are what we will be seen moving. china, europe, and it all works together with the u.s. liz: can mention another that you do, this is developed world market, it includes new zealand.

>> it is in the developed countries, that is right. what we expect is the developed markets are leading the emergency market out, so to speak. liz: it is wonderful to have you again. people are not too late to get into europe now? >> we don't think so. this is a good opportunity. you are at the front end of it, not the tail end, we wouldn't think. liz: thank you so much. david. david: italy, spain and the netherlands are still in recession. a lot better than a lot of people thought. carl icahn stunned investors saying he is taking a large stake in apple, so how much profit did carl icahn himself make in the last 24 hours?

liz: coca-cola goes on the offense for critics of one of the biggest out of lines, this time it is not just the sugary drink. whether the campaign will work and what investors make of it when we come back. this man is about to be the millionth customer. would you mind ifi go ahead? instead we had someone go ahead of him and win fiy thousand dollars. congratulations you are our one millionth customer. nobody likes to miss out. that's why ally treats all their customers the same. whether you're the first or the millionth. if your bank doesn't think you're special anymore, you need an ally. ally bank. your money needs an ally.

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david: now we will tell you, carl icahn betting on apple: the stock extremely undervalued. he holds a very low position.

shares popped the ball in his announcement assuming he bought $1.5 billion stake yesterday and he might have bought it before so he made even more money but he has already made just the past 24 hours $100.5 million on his investments. just like that. liz: sales of soft drinks have been falling rapidly but it turns out sales of diet soft drinks are falling at an even faster rate. david: coca-cola has come out with an ad defending its drinks and the artificial sweeteners used in them. joining us now, with more on this. >> essentially the new campaign is trying to get people to stop fearing artificial sweeteners. a photograph of a woman and a teenage girl possibly her daughter enjoying a laugh when they talk about how coke knows

how to adjust to the crimes. crimes, times. offering low-calorie and no calorie choices. and they're taking extra steps to stay, artificial sweeteners are high-quality alternative to sugar and they even cite statistics saying it is more than 200 studies in the last 40 years. the company has been facing growing trend of people avoiding sugar first and now not only people avoiding sugar, but trying to avoid artificial sweeteners. the sales of regular coke are falling slower than diet coke, they're losing more money on diet sodas than regular sodas. falling faster. liz: clearly i have something to fall back on but if it is the

biggest bread and butter business, diet coke, it is certainly disturbing. do you think this changes anything? analysts who say this will make people say okay, i am fine. >> the fda came in with a statement saying essentially why the reason there on the market is we did a series of tests on them and find they are safe. the fda has approved sweeteners. the fda received scientific data before proving the sweeteners for their intended use. the fda is coming out saying we value these and they are safe. not necessarily healthy, but they are safe. david: warren buffett believes in them. we will see how much. liz: that is supposed to come

out any moment now. david: as of this morning the number two holding. good report, thank you very much. hardly a day goes by without some fed official sounding off on the economy today. not everybody thinks the fed is focusing on the right economic indicators so what should policymakers be looking at? liz: stay with the fed. the laws is building on the successor and who president obama would choose. will a dark horse overtake it? we have the very latest. (announcer) scottrade knows our clients trade

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because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) scottrade. voted "best investment services company." liz: time for a look at today's market drivers. all three major indices did end lower on speculation that the fed will begin tapering its bond purchasepurchases but no word when. s&p posted the sixth decline in eight days. consumer discretionary and health care were the worst-performing sectors. natural gas climbed for second time in three days an above than normal temperatures in the northeast and nat-gas. jcpenney spiking in late afternoon trading after the "new york post" said the same-store sales for jcpenney positive so far. they cited sources. shares closed up more than 3%.

sources say traffic and sales improved this month. not bad for jcpenney. but any given day, david up or down or all around. david: by the way, once again the markets ended down triple digits a lot of that had to do with fed stock. which leads us to the queetion, if your investments depend on which way the economy and fed are going, you have a problem. gdp numbers are always revised later. sometimes the noisyist numbers that get loudest reaction are the least reliable. our next guest focused on more important growth numbers and eliminates noisy numbers that usually end up getting changed. joining me a portfolio manager and strategist for columbia management. zack, i get a thrill when i see numbers revised. economist swear bit numbers and a week later or month later they're revised. why the gdp, that is the one i most often here revised, why is

it such a bad indicator of growth? >> investors are hugely focused on the gdp statistics. we learn about that in economics classes how we're supposed to measure the economy. gdp is deeply flawed measure of activity. david: why specifically? >> why specifically because they ignore the most important data in the economy. they ignore things like payroll data, industrial production and ism these important measures of business cycle but they don't enter into gdp. david: how much does the fed, this is kind after scary question to ask because is the fed themselves relying on this number which as you say is a bad number? >> i do think that fed officials rely a little bit excessively on gdp data. the fed has the big models of the economy. those are all based on gdp. they're not based on things like ism report or anything like that. but for markets we should being focused on things very correlated with the economy, good measures of the business cycle and they don't get revised

very much. we need to know what we see is what we get and things like business surveys, is-ms, are much more reliable in that regard. david: you mentioned ism. what other things should we be focused on when we think of growth in the economy? inventory for example? a lot of people focus on that. >> i don't think we should be focused on inventories. david: hold on, you're kind of dismissive of that fact. why not? what is it about inventories? a lot of people, you know, companies spend a lot of money preparing their inventory, whether they have enough or whether they have too much. you say that's not too important? >> it's really not for a forecasting purposes. david: okay. >> inventories matter in some sort of deep sense but our research shows they contain really no information for telling us what growth is going to be in the next quarter. it is just a question of the data. inventory, trade data, they're not really at thing us anything of value -- telling us anything

of value. what will growth look like the next three or six or nine months and inventories really can't tell us anything about that we need to focus on things more closely related to demand in the economy. consumer indicators, labor market indicators and measures of business confidence, things like that. david: how is your track record? because your clients rely on your track record and the way you calculate economic activity. so what is your track record? >> well, you would have to look at the, at our fund and, and our track record for forecasting growth but we think we have a pretty good handle on measuring the economy. we use our own statistical measures here and not gdp. we try to look at a very broad selection of indicators and try to find out where the central tendency is. there are always contradictions and noise in the economic data. that is inevitable. >> let me ask you a specific question, zack. specifically speaking a lot of people were taken by the surprise in the quick rise in

interest rates over past couple months? were you. >> we were not surprised by that, no. david: that is a direct, has a direct relationship to growth. go ahead. >> yeah that's right. and i think that is a great question because bun of the reasons people were surprised because there was this narrative in the economy that growth was not doing all that well and one of the reasons was the gdp data was weak. when we look at a broad set of indicators we did not see that weakness and that's one the reasons we were not surprised. david: if you're looking for a different way of calculating growth, contact columbia management. zach is the portfolio manager there. we appreciate you coming in. >> thank you. david: thanks. liz: david, president obama could be just a few weeks away from choosing a new federal reserve chairman. a former fed insider is bringing us the very latest odds on who is most likely to replace chairman ben bernanke. david: jerry o'driscoll, we love him. could the u.s. postal service begin drowning its fiscal soros and make a few bucks with

alcohol deliverys? you heard me right. they may be getting into that. peter barnes is bringing us all the details. ♪

>> i'm ashley webster with your fox business brief. the ntsb is investigating this morning's crash of a ups cargo plane. that aircraft went down while approaching the birmingham, alabama, airport, killing the two pilots aboard. ups says it is still gathering details of that incident and working with federal investigators. mortgage applications falling to their lowest level in more than a month. mortgage bankers association says applications which include refinancings dropped 4.%. this week's decline marks the 13th drop out of the last 15 weeks. national highway traffic safety administration will require automakers to provide online recall information for

individual vehicles. the new mandate will let car and truck owners enter the vehicle's vin number to find out if the car is being finked or still under recall. that is the very latest from the fox business network, giving you the power to prosper.

david: time for a quick speed read of some. day's other headlines, five stories in a minute. first up americans are holding on to less debt. a report released by the federal reserve bank of new york shows that total debt including mortgage, credit cards, auto loans, they all fell by $78 billion in the second quarter. to $11.15 trillion. this is actually low. it is the lowest since 2006. more than 40% of americans logging on to facebook every day. a study released by facebook show 33% of the users access the social networking site through its mobile app. >> >> hyundai is recalling 240,000 sonata sedans in cold weather

u.s. states because road salt can corrode the rear end suspension. this is from the 2006 and 2010 model years. and azera models from 2006 to 2011. toys 'r us is opening 100 new or remodeled stores. the significant expansion plans are in china. that is today's "speed read." [buzzer] symbol of apple there. all right, liz. liz: the u.s. postal service wants to be allowed to deliver beer and wine and spirits to your doorstep but is it enough to help improve business for the troubled agency? david: peter barnes joining us live from washington d.c. peter, i was wondering if the rules against delivering alcoa who date back to prohibition? >> they do, david. they have the roots in the temperance movement. now that the postal service is getting into the 21st century this issue has been bottled up in congress.

sorry, that's my pun for the day. in conference call with reporters, postmaster general patrick donahoe, said delivery of alcoholic beverages is on his legislative wish-list as the agency considers ways to gain revenue after losing $16 billion last year and faces more billions this year. the postal service could raise as much as $50 million in revenue a year. >> there are laws around alcohol in the mail date back over 100 years. and we think that, that the world's changed dramatically and customers are looking for a lot more flexibility. >> right now ups and fedex have a lock on the alcohol beverage shipping business. the postal service has been banned from delivering alcoholic beverages since 1909, when congress passsd a law apparently in response to the temperance movement which was growing at

that time and eventually resulted in prohibition. now earlier this month the senate government affairs committee introduced bipartisan legislation to change the law. donahoe said to make sure kids don't get booze by mail, customers would have to go to their local post office to pick it up where i presume they would get carded. david and liz. liz: peter barnes, thank you. peter, can we still keep you right here? >> yeah. liz: while the president of st. louis fed james bullard had made a sweep earlier he is coming out with brand new comments hitting the tape right now. can you get usp to speed on them. one of them he is talking about risk. >> he met with reporters after the speech he gave in pa duke call, kentucky, and is saying he has not made up his mind on a september taper. he is seems to walk back his speech comments where he said the fed needs more data before

deciding on tapering. needs more second half of 2013 data. the fed could start tapering with a smaller amount. i don't see him ruling out sent all together either here. we're getting headlines on the wire. liz: he is also saying the fed should not go on with autopilot on tapering. you're right he is looking like he is walking back a back. it didn't look like september. now he is saying he hasn't ruled that out, peter. david: remember, nobody is talking about ending bond purchasing. they're talking about pulling back a little bit. the fed will be buying a lot of bonds, anywhere from 60 to $80 billion worth, right. >> that's right. they're doing 85 billion-dollars a month. it could be a small reduction, 5 or $10 billion starting in september but could continue 75, to 80 billion the rest of the year. is a committee. they have to work out a compromise. david: peter barnes, thank you very much. bullard's boss, fed chair ben

bernanke will bow out soon after the tumultuous chairmanship of the fed. who will replace him. what can we expect from the successor? liz: plus would you actually pay money to see bad art? one museum is putting disaster pieces on display. we've got that story coming up. stay tuned. ♪ if you've got it, you know how hard it can be to breathe

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liz: breaking news. st. louis fed president james bullard just now making brand new comments moments ago saying the fed needs more data before deciding whether to taper but now he is walking it back saying he has not made up his mind whether to effectuate a september taper. david: what is going on here? joining us on the phone is jerry o'driscoll, former dallas fed president and with the cato institute. we had so much speculation for the past three months ever since bernanke came out in the spring, the we have to taper eventually. market tanked. he came out and said he was not that serious about tapering. what is the bottom line here? do they know what they're doing? >> no. i think that's the bottom line. david: hold on a second. that's pretty scary that the fed

really doesn't know what it's doing, right? >> light. -- right. what they're talking about is he talked about earlier, reliance on unreliable figures like gdp which tend to be changed, revised over time but they're trying to read tea leaves and i think they're just going back and forth. they wake up on a monday and looks good. wake up on aatuesday, not so good. unfortunately they're speaking their mind out in public. liz: jerry, do you think bullard got blow back from other fed members saying i'm not sure we should be tapering in september because it sure appeared in his speech at 1:30, actually, it was 3:15 eastern time because previously this guy was talking at 1:30. he was pretty clear saying we need to see more data. now suddenly he said i haven't made up my mind on september tapering. he may have gotten a signal to test the waters and there was a blow back. so he had to retract his words. i mean, anything's possible.

he may have thought, he may have thought he had a signal to go ahead and say that. turns out they didn't want him to say that, i don't know. liz: what should he and the other fed members be looking at right now if not gdp? >> well i think they should be looking at monetary history and thinking how they're going to extricate themselves from the all this quantitative easing. they will have to do it at some point, but talking about it before they figure out what they will do is not helpful. david: jerry, you lead us to talk about the legacy of ben bernanke. how has he changed the role of the fed, ben bernanke and, can that change, the change that he instituted for the fed be changed by the next chief? @> well i think he's politicized the fed in a way we haven't seen since the days of arthur burns and richard nixon. >> what do you mean when you say politicized? >> aligning monetary policy with short and medium term goals of which administration is in

power. aligning monetary policy with the fiscal policy, whether the burbank bailout or support of housing market under obama. by politicizing the fed, it just another patronage job. that is why we see this, in my opinion, tawdry campaigning by yellen through proxies by yellen and larry summers. and i've never seen anything like this before in my life. liz: okay. nor have a lot of other people. now you've got members of congress weighing in, writing the president letters saying, yeah,,yellen and others are saying, go larry summers. what is your best bet? is there a dark horse we're missing here? >> i don't think it will be a dark horse. that's always possible. people mentioned don kohn who i have the highest regard for. he is getting a little old. i think it will be yellen or summers. at the moment it looks like the president is just going to take his man which is larry summers, but, as say a month ago, the

inside candidate was clearly yellen. so it's the president versus the insiders. i think that's what it is get being down to. david: by the way, there is something that is not locked at -- looked at very often, yellen was a found of glass siegel. that was depression shun era law separating banking from commercial banks. she kind of likes it and feels getting rid of it in 1999 in the clinton administration led to problems in we had in 2007. if she becomes chair might she reinstitute some way glass-steagall? >> that is legislative issue. she might be more aggressive in bank regulation. summers feels deregulation that took effect is correct and he might have a lighter hand. i think on regulatory side

either will arise. david: it's a legislative situation but alan greenspan did a lot to get rid of glass-steagall from the sidelines when he was fed chair. a lot can be done from the chair of the fed. liz: good to have you. we'll have you back. thank you very much. tawdry campaign. david: oh dear. how about getting vip privileges on facebook? we're not talking about a new service for the average user of the social network. only the elite can apply. does that sound too much like what happens in britain? we'll bring you details next. liz: we asked you on facebook and twitter, now that billionaire investor carl icahn is betting on apple, would you? we'll read some of your answers. that's next. don't go away. ♪ this man is about to be the millionth customer. would you mind if i go ahead of you? instead we had someone go ahead of him and win fiy thousand dollars. congratulations you are our onmillionth customer.

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david: well liz teased this up. how about a museum for really bad art, bad art? boston has the first bad art museum in the united states a lot of bad art in my mind sells for millions. look at this. the art has to be this bad to be this good. the museum openly selects five out of 20. how much would you pay to see the bad art? you don't have to. the admission is free. i bet some bad art sells for a lot of money. that is better than a soup can. liz: for free. off the desk, celebrities will

have vip privileges on facebook. they will be able to monitor fan gossip more closely and interact with fans more effectively on mobile devices. this is all part of facebook's efforts to step up competition with twitter. david: i don't like that idea. we asked you on facebook and twitter if you think that billionaire investor carl icahn is betting on apple whether because of that now is a good time to buy the stock? ty on facebook wrote in to say, definitely not. stick with the fundamentals not big names driving up the price. liz: time for the top three things to watch tomorrow. number three, shares of cisco. the stock trading to the downside following a miss on earnings, barely a miss on revenue, let's be clear on that. but john chambers, cisco chairman and ceo, joining fox business tomorrow in the afternoon. it will be on "countdown to the closing bell." be sure you stay tuned for that. we'll ask him all kind of questions about the business. david: number two thing to watch the august national homebuilder survey. economists expect the reading

will fall to 56 from 57. liz: number one thing to watch? jobless claims. economists expect claims to rise by 2,000 to 135,000. david: time for "money." adam shapiro is in for melissa francis. that that's next. >> i'm adam shapiro in for melissa francis and here's what's money tonight. you can buy anything from books to bread on amazon but, an original monet? amazon art has bargain prints to real war holes. this new online gallery wants to revolutionize the multibillion-dollar art industry. and we've got the first tv interview with the amazon executive in charge in a fox business exclusive. plus, what does booze have to do with the post office's future? it may be its financial savior. the u.s. postmaster general is here with his bold plan to save billions of dollars. "who made money today?" the buyout of this music company i